Team Norfolk - Hurricane Irma Update - 9-6-27 @ 6:30pm

Team -

No doubt you have been following the track of Hurricane Irma (click on link and see VDEM storm dashboard below), and no doubt you’ve also noticed the recent changes in its track.  Internally, our conversations and response efforts began over the holiday weekend with “what if?” scenarios – planning for the worse and hoping for the best.  Based on the latest tracks, these discussions have not been for naught. 

We have reached out to several partners already and today initiated 24-hour operational periods with daily situation reports and Emergency Operations Center briefings.  In other words, based on our plans and checklists, we are focusing on those immediate tasks based on our hurricane readiness level from 4:00pm today through 4:00pm tomorrow while our Planning section is always looking ahead modifying or establishing goals and objectives for the following 24-hour operating period.  This is the Incident Command System.

A proactive unity of effort is what we strive for throughout Team Norfolk Emergency Operations.  As such, you are part of this process.  Therefore, starting tomorrow (9-7-17), please send your storm response status as well as your intentions / needs for the next 24-hour period no later than 2pm to EOC-Plans@norfolk.gov.  (If you know your long-term resource needs feel free to share them as well).  Our daily Team Norfolk EOC Briefing call will commence at 3pm followed by an internal conversation among our Policy Cell at 4pm.  Please be advised: the EOC Briefing call will in fact be brief.  An update on the threat will be provided as well as a status on the unified goals and objectives.  Resource needs should have already been submitted through the situation reports and thus will be included in the briefing, but only as confirmation.  These calls are to ensure shared situational awareness while not delaying preparedness efforts.

If you do not receive an invitation to participate on the EOC Briefings, please do not be offended.  It is merely due to the fact there are only so many ports available.  All that is provided and discussed will be shared without delay!

More to follow tomorrow, including the latest copy of our Basic Plan and Hurricane Annex as well as the accompanied Battle Rhythm (checklist of action items for each hurricane readiness level).  Please read it and challenge it so it can be improved!  Also, in order to ensure a comprehensive community response to the storm(s), please remember to submit a situation report no later than 2pm every day until the storm dictates otherwise (sitreps become more frequent or the storm blows away).

Ladies and Gentlemen – this is what we do.  We have our plans in place and we have each other = TEAM NORFOLK.  Please take this time to prepare personally and for your family.  Hurricane Irma could prove to be the real deal and we’ll need all hands-on deck to respond and recover.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns.

Thank you!!

Jim

Jim Redick, Director
Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Team Norfolk - Hurricane Irma - 9-6-17 @ 3pm

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please see the following update from Jeff Orrock, Meteorologist in Charge for the National Weather Service in Wakefield:

“I know everyone has been watching the forecast track of Hurricane Irma intently. We are still in the long-range stage of predictions with this system and forecasts will change, however, given trends in the guidance over the past few days turning the storm north our concern is increasing (see attached images of NHC forecast track and guidance uncertainty). There is good agreement that Irma will make a turn to the north at some point, the main questions are; when and how far does Irma track west before turning? The answers to these questions will eventually determine impacts on our region and the timing of those impacts. 

At this stage given all the guidance, it is becoming more likely that we will see some degree of impacts in regards to wind, heavy rain/flooding and tidal flooding. The extent and timing of each of these possible impacts depend on the track of the storm. The EARLIEST timing for increasing winds would be some time Monday into Tuesday. 

Summary:

• Hurricane Irma becoming more of a concern for early next week.
• Hurricane Irma could be a major hurricane posing a threat to the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday. 
• Mid-Atlantic region will like experience various impacts from Irma
• Exact track, impacts and timing of those impacts remains uncertain
• Forecasts issued Thursday will likely place at least southern VA and NC within the 5-day forecast error cone and on the edge of Tropical Storm Force Wind probabilities. 

We will send out an update again tomorrow to help set the tone regarding any changes in the forecast.” 

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Thanks, Jeff, and thanks everyone!

Jim

Jim Redick, Director
Norfolk EOC

Team Norfolk Weather Update 8-29-17 @ 9:30am

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The latest update from Mike Dutter at the Nation Weather Service is as follows:

“Good Morning,

Attached is our latest weather briefing for the ongoing coastal low. Not a great deal has changed since our previous briefing...

• We are still expecting wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph this afternoon closer to a coast and over the water. A High Wind Warning for coastal locations and Storm Warning for most marine areas are in effect.
• Localized flooding is possible from heavy rainfall today, especially along the coastal plain. Although, even the I-95 corridor may have a small threat for minor flooding.
• Since the storm is moving quickly, the threat for coastal flooding will be confined to the high tide cycle this afternoon with water levels 2-2.5 ft above normal. We are forecasting minor coastal flooding for points in Hampton Roads. Jamestown, Yorktown and Kiptopeke may approach moderate coastal flooding.
• Dangerous surf and rip currents today.

Thank you, and please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions. You can also find this briefing at http://www.weather.gov/media/akq/briefings/LatestBriefing.pdf”

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For our area specifically, the hourly graph suggests we can expect another 2” of rain between now and 7pm.  Furthermore, wind speeds should now begin to increase with gusts nearing 50mph between 3-8pm.  The tide forecast has fallen back below the moderate flood stage; however, some flooding at the usual spots is expected. 

We'll continue to monitor and provide updates as appropriate.

Thanks!

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Team Norfolk Storm Update 8-28-17 @ 3:30pm

All,

The Emergency Operations Center participated in the afternoon conference call with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) and the National Weather Service in Wakefield.  Bill Sammler reported the following [paraphrased] on behalf of the NWS:

The tropical system, expected to become Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Irma, is still a bit disorganized but expected nonetheless to make its way up to Coastal Carolina and then move quickly off shore.  It’s during this time the storm is expected to intensify. 

Rain is expected between now and midnight Tuesday night with overall accumulation of ~2-4”.  The period of greatest impact regarding winds and storm surge are tomorrow (Tuesday) 10am to midnight.  Winds will be the strongest during that same timeframe with gusts expected in the 50-60mph range.  The forecast for minor to low-end moderate flooding on the tides chart is not expected to change.

The storm-specific link remains http://www.weather.gov/akq/PTC10 until the name is changed to Tropical Depression and/or Tropical Storm Irma.

The Hourly Graph attached reflects wind gusts peaking at 51mph Tuesday at 5pm.  Moreover, the rain combined with a 3:55pm high tide will result in nuisance flooding and certainly in the low-lying coastal areas.  72-Hour Precipitation Forecast and Tide Chart reflecting ~1.5" for Norfolk also attached.

More to come.

Thanks!

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Team Norfolk - Storm System Update - 8-28-17 @ 11am

Team,

Here is the latest from Mike Dutter of the NWS in Wakefield:

"Attached is the significant weather briefing for the expected coastal low, affecting the area Tuesday.  In summary:

• At this time we are expecting strong NE winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts to 50+ mph across coastal VA, including areas near the Bay, NE NC and the lower MD eastern shore. A high wind watch is in effect for many of those areas. 
• Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches could cause some flooding across NE NC and SE VA.
• Moderate coastal flooding is possible during Tuesday's high tide cycle, especially across Hampton Roads
• Marine conditions in the coastal waters and lower bay will become dangerous. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 knots and waves of 8-12 ft can be expected across the coastal waters, with similar conditions across the lower bay.
• High surf and dangerous rip currents will persist along the shore through Tuesday.”

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Mike included several graphics in his briefing; I will simply add the latest hourly graph and tidal forecast.  The hourly graph shows 1 ½ “of precipitation beginning this evening through the early morning hours of Wednesday as well as peak wind gusts of ~50mph Tuesday afternoon.  Tide chart continues to show high tide of significance is Tuesday around 4pm.  To get a sense of what the 5.6’ tide may look like, you can visit Norfolk’s TITAN program and enter a Flood Layer (NAVD88) of 4.0 or 4.5 ft.

Norfolk is under a High Wind Watch and a Flash Flood Watch until tomorrow (Tuesday) at 8pm with the additional Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The storm track will be updated by the National Hurricane Center at 11am, the Virginia Department of Emergency Management scheduled a conference call for 3pm this afternoon and the next NWS Wakefield Brief will be 5pm. 

Stay tuned… We’ll keep you posted.

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

TEAM NORFOLK - 8-27-17 - Potential Impacts from Tropical System Monday through Tuesday

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please see the following from Bill Sammler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wakefield:

“At 5 pm, the National Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories on an area of low pressure east of the Georgia coast that could become tropical storm Irma by tomorrow. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the North Carolina coast as far north as Currituck Beach Light. This system's greatest impacts will be in southeast Virginia and coastal northeast North Carolina, although rain and gusty winds could extend well inland, and potential coastal flooding could impact our entire coastal/Chesapeake Bay area. Below are some potential impacts and timing.

Coastal Flooding - Minor flooding possible entire area, with moderate flooding possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the James River (at least as far upstream as Jamestown). Expect coastal flooding to begin later Monday and continue into Tuesday. Detailed forecasts are available on our Tides and Coastal flooding page.

Rainfall - Most areas will receive one half inch of rain or less during the event. The exception will be along and east of a Chincoteague to Roanoke Rapids line, where 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible. Some areas near the coast could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, within slightly higher localized amounts possible. See our Rain and Snow Forecasts page for details.

Winds - Edenton to Chincoteague eastward - Wind gusts Monday night through Tuesday could get in the 40 to 45 mph range, depending upon how much the area of low pressure intensifies. Elsewhere, wind gusts will be in the 20-30 mph range, highest near the Bay, and Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with regard to the intensity of this system, and whether the center remains over water as it lifts along the coast. We hope to have more details to provide you by tomorrow morning. If so, a detailed briefing may be issued.”

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I’ve attached the Tropical Storm graphic which reflects the TS Watch Bill mentioned, the hourly graph, 3-day rainfall forecast and tidal forecast for your review.  Again, currently, timing for such impacts begins tomorrow (Monday).  Minor flooding expected with Monday’s 2:55pm high tide (a couple hours before and after), nuisance flooding during the early morning (3:10am) high tide Tuesday and then moderate flooding associated with Tuesday afternoon’s high tide which peaks at 3:49pm. 

All subject to change; we’ll continue to monitor and keep you posted.  In the meantime, feel free to contact us with any questions.

Thanks!

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

 

Team Norfolk Inclement Weather 7-28-17

Team Norfolk,

Please see the following as provided by the National Weather Service in Wakefield:

"Low pressure slowly tracking across the Mid-Atlantic region will result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon through Saturday morning. Low pressure slides offshore Saturday afternoon, with lingering showers expected generally east of Interstate 95 through Saturday night. A flash flood watch has been issued for this afternoon through Saturday morning for areas north and east of Richmond. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected on average across the watch area, with locally higher amounts possible. For more information, please refer to the attached slides or our Rainfall Briefing Page (link: www.weather.gov/akq/rainandsnow).

In addition, the slight risk for severe weather has been downgraded to a marginal risk for the entire Wakefield forecast area. A few late afternoon and evening thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with locally damaging winds and frequent lightning the main threats. To keep up with the latest severe weather outlooks, check out our Severe Weather Briefing Page (link: www.weather.gov/akq/SevereThunderstorms). 

Low pressure slides offshore Saturday, with increasing north to northeast winds late Saturday through Sunday. Gusts of 25-30 mph are expected along the coast. North to northeast flow will also result in above normal tidal departures. Minor flooding is possible along the coast and in the lower Chesapeake Bay."

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 As it pertains more specifically to Norfolk, rain is very much likely today and throughout the weekend; however, our area is not in the flash flood watch nor are the rain amounts during the projected times such to overwhelm our storm water infrastructure.  Incidentally, per the attached Tides chart, the tides begin to stack tomorrow (Saturday) resulting in a chance for tidal flooding during the Sunday afternoon high tide (3:41pm) which combined with the rainfall will result in flooding in the usual areas.  Remember, to tides take a little while to come in and recede, so flooding is expected leading up to the high tide and sometime thereafter.  For a graphic of what the tidal inundation might look like given the current forecast (but not including the impact of rainfall), visit  Norfolk’s TITAN program at http://gisapp1.norfolk.gov/TITAN (for the appropriate conversion, use 1-1.5’ less in the flood layer than what is displayed in the tide chart.  With a forecast of 4.5, select 3.5 or 3’ in the TITAN flood layer). 

As with all things weather, it is subject to change.  We’ll certainly continue to monitor and update you of any changes.

Thanks!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC