Team Norfolk Emergency Operations: Team Norfolk - Hurricane Irma

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please see the following update from Jeff Orrock, Meteorologist in Charge for the National Weather Service in Wakefield:

“I know everyone has been watching the forecast track of Hurricane Irma intently. We are still in the long-range stage of predictions with this system and forecasts will change, however, given trends in the guidance over the past few days turning the storm north our concern is increasing (see attached images of NHC forecast track and guidance uncertainty). There is good agreement that Irma will make a turn to the north at some point, the main questions are; when and how far does Irma track west before turning? The answers to these questions will eventually determine impacts on our region and the timing of those impacts.

At this stage given all the guidance, it is becoming more likely that we will see some degree of impacts in regards to wind, heavy rain/flooding and tidal flooding. The extent and timing of each of these possible impacts depend on the track of the storm. The EARLIEST timing for increasing winds would be some time Monday into Tuesday.

Summary:

Hurricane Irma becoming more of a concern for early next week.
Hurricane Irma could be a major hurricane posing a threat to the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday.
Mid-Atlantic region will like experience various impacts from Irma
Exact track, impacts and timing of those impacts remains uncertain
Forecasts issued Thursday will likely place at least southern VA and NC within the 5-day forecast error cone and on the edge of Tropical Storm Force Wind probabilities.