Team Norfolk Weather Update 8-29-17 @ 9:30am

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The latest update from Mike Dutter at the Nation Weather Service is as follows:

“Good Morning,

Attached is our latest weather briefing for the ongoing coastal low. Not a great deal has changed since our previous briefing...

• We are still expecting wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph this afternoon closer to a coast and over the water. A High Wind Warning for coastal locations and Storm Warning for most marine areas are in effect.
• Localized flooding is possible from heavy rainfall today, especially along the coastal plain. Although, even the I-95 corridor may have a small threat for minor flooding.
• Since the storm is moving quickly, the threat for coastal flooding will be confined to the high tide cycle this afternoon with water levels 2-2.5 ft above normal. We are forecasting minor coastal flooding for points in Hampton Roads. Jamestown, Yorktown and Kiptopeke may approach moderate coastal flooding.
• Dangerous surf and rip currents today.

Thank you, and please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions. You can also find this briefing at http://www.weather.gov/media/akq/briefings/LatestBriefing.pdf”

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For our area specifically, the hourly graph suggests we can expect another 2” of rain between now and 7pm.  Furthermore, wind speeds should now begin to increase with gusts nearing 50mph between 3-8pm.  The tide forecast has fallen back below the moderate flood stage; however, some flooding at the usual spots is expected. 

We'll continue to monitor and provide updates as appropriate.

Thanks!

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Team Norfolk Storm Update 8-28-17 @ 3:30pm

All,

The Emergency Operations Center participated in the afternoon conference call with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) and the National Weather Service in Wakefield.  Bill Sammler reported the following [paraphrased] on behalf of the NWS:

The tropical system, expected to become Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Irma, is still a bit disorganized but expected nonetheless to make its way up to Coastal Carolina and then move quickly off shore.  It’s during this time the storm is expected to intensify. 

Rain is expected between now and midnight Tuesday night with overall accumulation of ~2-4”.  The period of greatest impact regarding winds and storm surge are tomorrow (Tuesday) 10am to midnight.  Winds will be the strongest during that same timeframe with gusts expected in the 50-60mph range.  The forecast for minor to low-end moderate flooding on the tides chart is not expected to change.

The storm-specific link remains http://www.weather.gov/akq/PTC10 until the name is changed to Tropical Depression and/or Tropical Storm Irma.

The Hourly Graph attached reflects wind gusts peaking at 51mph Tuesday at 5pm.  Moreover, the rain combined with a 3:55pm high tide will result in nuisance flooding and certainly in the low-lying coastal areas.  72-Hour Precipitation Forecast and Tide Chart reflecting ~1.5" for Norfolk also attached.

More to come.

Thanks!

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Team Norfolk - Storm System Update - 8-28-17 @ 11am

Team,

Here is the latest from Mike Dutter of the NWS in Wakefield:

"Attached is the significant weather briefing for the expected coastal low, affecting the area Tuesday.  In summary:

• At this time we are expecting strong NE winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts to 50+ mph across coastal VA, including areas near the Bay, NE NC and the lower MD eastern shore. A high wind watch is in effect for many of those areas. 
• Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches could cause some flooding across NE NC and SE VA.
• Moderate coastal flooding is possible during Tuesday's high tide cycle, especially across Hampton Roads
• Marine conditions in the coastal waters and lower bay will become dangerous. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 knots and waves of 8-12 ft can be expected across the coastal waters, with similar conditions across the lower bay.
• High surf and dangerous rip currents will persist along the shore through Tuesday.”

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Mike included several graphics in his briefing; I will simply add the latest hourly graph and tidal forecast.  The hourly graph shows 1 ½ “of precipitation beginning this evening through the early morning hours of Wednesday as well as peak wind gusts of ~50mph Tuesday afternoon.  Tide chart continues to show high tide of significance is Tuesday around 4pm.  To get a sense of what the 5.6’ tide may look like, you can visit Norfolk’s TITAN program and enter a Flood Layer (NAVD88) of 4.0 or 4.5 ft.

Norfolk is under a High Wind Watch and a Flash Flood Watch until tomorrow (Tuesday) at 8pm with the additional Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The storm track will be updated by the National Hurricane Center at 11am, the Virginia Department of Emergency Management scheduled a conference call for 3pm this afternoon and the next NWS Wakefield Brief will be 5pm. 

Stay tuned… We’ll keep you posted.

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

TEAM NORFOLK - 8-27-17 - Potential Impacts from Tropical System Monday through Tuesday

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please see the following from Bill Sammler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wakefield:

“At 5 pm, the National Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories on an area of low pressure east of the Georgia coast that could become tropical storm Irma by tomorrow. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the North Carolina coast as far north as Currituck Beach Light. This system's greatest impacts will be in southeast Virginia and coastal northeast North Carolina, although rain and gusty winds could extend well inland, and potential coastal flooding could impact our entire coastal/Chesapeake Bay area. Below are some potential impacts and timing.

Coastal Flooding - Minor flooding possible entire area, with moderate flooding possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the James River (at least as far upstream as Jamestown). Expect coastal flooding to begin later Monday and continue into Tuesday. Detailed forecasts are available on our Tides and Coastal flooding page.

Rainfall - Most areas will receive one half inch of rain or less during the event. The exception will be along and east of a Chincoteague to Roanoke Rapids line, where 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible. Some areas near the coast could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, within slightly higher localized amounts possible. See our Rain and Snow Forecasts page for details.

Winds - Edenton to Chincoteague eastward - Wind gusts Monday night through Tuesday could get in the 40 to 45 mph range, depending upon how much the area of low pressure intensifies. Elsewhere, wind gusts will be in the 20-30 mph range, highest near the Bay, and Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with regard to the intensity of this system, and whether the center remains over water as it lifts along the coast. We hope to have more details to provide you by tomorrow morning. If so, a detailed briefing may be issued.”

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I’ve attached the Tropical Storm graphic which reflects the TS Watch Bill mentioned, the hourly graph, 3-day rainfall forecast and tidal forecast for your review.  Again, currently, timing for such impacts begins tomorrow (Monday).  Minor flooding expected with Monday’s 2:55pm high tide (a couple hours before and after), nuisance flooding during the early morning (3:10am) high tide Tuesday and then moderate flooding associated with Tuesday afternoon’s high tide which peaks at 3:49pm. 

All subject to change; we’ll continue to monitor and keep you posted.  In the meantime, feel free to contact us with any questions.

Thanks!

Jim

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov