Hurricane Matthew 9-30-16 at 0945

Team,

Hot off the press from Jeff Orrock, Meteorologist in Charge for NWS Wakefield:

 “Wanted to pass along short summary you can share with others providing some highlights and online resources for folks to use to track the progress of Matthew and to help set the tone. Bottom line is there is still much uncertainty regarding how fast Matthew will turn north and move into the Bahamas. The timing of this turn and speed of its forward motion once it turns will play a big role in how close the storm comes to the southeast US. 

In the near term, Minor to Moderate coastal/tidal flooding is expected through today with Minor flooding lingering into the weekend. Tides should slowly start to come down later Saturday and Sunday, but will remain above normal. 

Another disturbance will move across the entire area late this afternoon through the overnight resulting in areas of showers and storms. With already saturated ground, flooding is possible. 

Please keep up with the latest using the online briefing resources provided in the briefing.”

Jeff’s NOAA/NWS attachments are provided below.

 

The attached dashboard for Hurricane Matthew was sent by the Virginia Department of Emergency Management and provided for your review.  I’ve also included the track data from the HURREVAC program.  Like Jeff reported, they show Matthew still south of us on Wednesday, and like any forecast outside of 36 hours, a cone of uncertainty which may have the storm move along the coast or head out to the Atlantic.

As for the weekend, 30-40% chance of rain with minimal accumulation between now and noon tomorrow (Saturday), when the probably dips to the mid- to lower 20’s, and then mid- to lower teens Sunday around 2pm. 

We are under a Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am Saturday morning.  This is reflected in the attached tide chart; however, the heights for the next couple of high tides are not forecasted to reach that of this morning’s high tide (occurring at this moment) or last evening’s high tide.  As we have seen before (and since last’s night’s forecast), this is subject to change.

We saw Hurricane Sandy in 2012 take a northward approach from the islands, and as stated in the VDEM dashboard below, Matthew is on a similar track to Hazel in 1954.  As such, Norfolk EOC will maintain a leaning-forward posture, preparing as if Matthew will in fact head toward us.  There will be no storm-related conference calls scheduled over the weekend; nonetheless, please use this time to review action items with your internal teams.

Thank you!

Jim

Director, Norfolk EOC