Team Norfolk - Impending Wet Weather 5-22-17 @ 2pm

Ladies and Gentlemen, the following comes from our friends at the National Weather Service in Wakefield.  The graphic they provided is attached.

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“We are anticipating an extended period of wet weather starting today and continuing through at least Wednesday night. Low pressure organizing over Texas this morning will rapidly move northeast tonight, then cross the local area on Tuesday. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain will accompany this low as it moves through on Tuesday, starting first across the Piedmont during the pre-dawn hours, then spreading east to the Eastern Shore by afternoon. There will be a reprieve from the wet weather Tuesday night through at least midday Wednesday before another round of showers and thunderstorms impacts the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Rainfall totals through Wednesday night will range from 1-3" with locally higher amounts possible. Again, most of this rain occurs during the day on Tuesday.

Ponding of water on roadways as well as minor flooding of creeks, streams and other low-lying or poor drainage areas is expected. However, a lack of rainfall over the past week will preclude a widespread flooding threat. Rises on area rivers will occur as well.”

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The hourly graphs are also provided below validating the aforementioned forecast comments.  80% chance of rain throughout the evening equaling 1/2” between 3-8pm.  Another bout of rain expected tomorrow (Tuesday) between 8am-7pm with around 1 ¼”.  Rain possible throughout Wednesday and Thursday, but at this point, to no degree of concern.  High tide Wednesday evening is at 4.1’ (see tidal chart below), however, which will likely cause the usual flooding in the coastal areas.   Using the City’s TITAN program (open in Google Chrome), enter 3’ for the Flood Layer (NAVD88) for a glance of the location and amount of flooding expected.

Thanks and be safe!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Hurricane Exercise 5-15-17

Due to the lack of interest / reviews over the past week, the Norfolk EOC will reallocate the time posting exercise response information to other planning initiatives.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

Thank you,

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

HURRICANE EXERCISE 5-12-17 @ 3:30PM

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Here is the latest on Hurricane Brady from Fleet Weather Center and Naval Station Norfolk’s Emergency Manager, Gene Lambert:

Hurricane Brady is currently a strong CAT 3 hurricane located approximately 110 miles North/Northwest of Miami, FL [see attached graphic]. BRADY is forecast to continue to track parallel to the FL coastline and decrease slightly with land interaction. Once near the GA coast, BRADY is forecast to make a turn to the NE and pick up speed, making landfall near CAPE Fear, NC as a CAT 2 hurricane. It will then track NE just inland up the NC coast before exiting back over water near the NC/VA border making CPA [closest point of approach] to NAVSTA Norfolk Tuesday morning around 8am. We remain on the left side of the track which has the lower winds and as such, the Destructive Winds forecast is showing maximum winds on station of [69mph], with onset of [39mph / tropical storm force] winds beginning around 3am Tuesday morning.  Onset of [57mph] winds will begin at 8am Tuesday morning. Current forecast is showing a storm surge of 5-7ft.

The period after storm passage is expected to bring the highest storm tides for Norfolk as winds shift out of the NE. Based on a storm surge of 5-7 ft, we could see a storm tide of 8-10 ft based on storm passage and timing of hi/lo tides.  [Again, this is more than what was experienced during Hurricane Isabel and the 1933 Hurricane.]

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With weekend pause in exercise play, we pick back up Monday so for this update we’re considering ourselves approximately 72-48 hours before landfall.  The Norfolk EOC is in Readiness Condition 3 at 72 hours before landfall, and Condition 2 at T-48.

Remember, at this point we’re already at a partial Emergency Operations Center (EOC) and Joint Information Center (JIC) activation with a local emergency declared.  There is a steady stream of communication and information sharing among Team Norfolk Emergency Operations, our partners throughout the region and the State, and most certainly throughout our community.  Volunteer organizations alerted and on stand-by.  State resources have been requested.  Communications are in place.  Shelters are ready.  Venues / special events identified and ready for closure.  Parking safe havens in municipal garages, school parking lots and other venues have been identified.  Efforts have been made with a strategy in place to ensure communication with, and sustenance for, our residents who may be vulnerable due to access and functional needs or poverty / hunger.  (See previous update). 

In advance of actual landfall, Economic Development has identified potential sites which may be used for post-storm recovery centers (where, if FEMA Individual Assistance is made available folks could go and receive help from FEMA, the Small Business Administration and Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster) and if needed a Joint Field Office (a coordination site among local, regional, state and Federal stakeholders).

Messages to the community:

• Folks can view potential flooding scenarios using Norfolk TITAN.  Sample graphic provided below.  NOTE 1: for the appropriate conversion, use 1-1.5’ less in the flood layer than what is displayed in the tide chart.  With a forecast of 10’, select 9’ or 8.5’ in the TITAN flood layer.  Note 2: this shows flooding from inundation only; additional flooding from rainfall or wave activity are not reflected.
• Make sure you have the necessary supplies for whether you stay in place or evacuate.  More information available at http://www.norfolk.gov/index.aspx?NID=658.
• Be prepared to evacuate if ordered!  You will be notified via Norfolk Alert (you must subscribe) and other means such as Norfolk.gov, social media and TV48.  Information will also include which shelters are to be opened and at what time.  Know what to expect in a city shelter! (website and video).
• Be sure to inventory and document important paperwork and valuables!  Review your insurance to find out what you might need on hand to file a claim.  Remember – flood damage is not included in a homeowner policy and it takes 30 days for a flood insurance policy to go into effect! 
• While taking steps to protect your home, make sure they’re effective!  Taping windows is not effective!  If resources permit, information on how to board up windows with plywood can be found here.  

NOTE: AT THIS POINT THE EXERCISE IS PAUSED FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK.  THANKS FOR FOLLOWING ALONG AND BE SURE TO CONTACT US WITH ANY QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE!

Thank you and have a great weekend!

Sincerely,

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

 

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HURRICANE EXERCISE 5-11-17 @1:30PM

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Morning update reports Hurricane Brady – a Category 3 storm – is located approximately 225NM southeast of Miami (see attached graphic), tracking northwest at ~11mph.   Maximum sustained winds are 126mph and gusts of 143mph.  According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a storm of this magnitude has the ability to cause devastating damage: “Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.”  Current track forecast has Brady reaching our area Sunday morning (T-72 hours).  Extended forecast suggests some weakening of the storm, but not as much as we would hope.

At the 96-hour mark, the Team Norfolk EOC moves into Readiness Condition 3 (which simply states the forecasted arrival of tropical storm force winds are expected within 96-48 hours) with a partial activation.  Also by this point a pre-landfall local emergency would have been declared (and likely a Governor declaration as well). As mentioned previously, this declaration serves as a trigger by which we can request state and federal assets.  If a CAT-3 or CAT-2 is expected, there would be a number of pre-scripted requests submitted to the Virginia EOC.  Also, with regular monitoring of the surge models, wind timing and rainfall forecasts, discussions would be well underway regarding evacuations. 

While evacuations would not be called for at this time, communication throughout the community explaining the process would be.  One video which would be shared through Norfolk.gov, social media and TV48 would be Mermaid City: Unpacked – Hurricane Evacuation.  We would also be reminding folks of the ways by which they could receive official storm-related information via the episode, “Information Sources During a Disaster.”  

Discussions would also be underway between the EOC, Public Health and our hospitals and healthcare facilities (including assisted care / long-term care, dialysis, etc.).  Furthermore, we would reach out to our partner, Endependence Center, who serves as our Access and Functional Needs liaison in the EOC, as well as our Operation Brother’s Keeper faith community partners to reach out to individuals with various access and functional needs and further warn them of the impending storm.  One video we often share was developed by the Virginia Healthcare Emergency Management Program entitled “Dare to Prepare.” 

Shelters, shelter teams to include communications (amateur radio) and transportation support are already on stand-by; however, additional logistics would be considered by now to ensure appropriate level of care.  Norfolk possesses a Shelter Support Unit (SSU) consisting of various medical capabilities.  While this equipment is inventoried and checked on a regular basis, we would partner with Norfolk Medical Reserve Corps and possibly the Metropolitan Medical Response Team to do so again.  More than ensuring the availability and functionality of the SSU resources, procurement process would be underway to secure professional contract nursing staff.  All shelters will be ADA-compliant and rather than having one shelter with all the SSU equipment, various equipment should be available to each shelter depending on request and severity of need.  Another message for the community would be “What to Expect in an Emergency Shelter.”

Stay tuned - more to come with the next update!

Thanks!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

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HURRICANE EXERCISE 5-10-17 @ 9:30AM

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Team,

The latest information from the Navy Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk has Hurricane Brady Southeast of Miami and moving along its projected path at 10mph.  Sustained winds are 120mph (and gusts of 138mph) which makes Brady a Category 3 storm.  Expected arrival of tropical-storm force winds is still approximately 4-5 days (96-120 hours).

Forecast confidence is typically not strong outside of 36 hours before landfall and Team Norfolk would still be at Readiness Condition 4; however, a CAT-3 at 120 hours out, the EOC would request the City Manager declare a local emergency.  This pre-landfall declaration, which coincides with the Governor’s timeline for a State declaration, is more of an administrative trigger to begin capturing all incident-related preparation and protection costs.  A local declaration is also a requirement before we begin requesting resources from the state.  For instance, we may very well request from the Virginia EOC in Richmond high water vehicles and water rescue teams from the Virginia Army National Guard.

The Planning Cell in the Norfolk Emergency Operations Center continues monitoring NHC products such as their Public Advisories, Forecast Discussions, Wind Speed Probabilities, Track Forecast and Cone and Probabilistic wind timing.  We would also continue having conference calls based on the latest updates with the National Weather Service and the Virginia Department of Emergency Management.  Again, we would be conducting EOC briefings with all of Team Norfolk, which is inclusive of public, private, nonprofit, public/higher education, military and our faith community, and providing spot reports via email.  All organizations plugged into Team Norfolk are all getting the same critical information.  If you are not already part of Team Norfolk Emergency Operations but would like to be, ask us how you can!!!

The EOC and Joint Information Center (JIC) would be prepped for a full activation.  Shelters and shelter staff, to include our partners with Norfolk Public Schools (i.e. bus drivers, custodial, facility leadership) and our crucial amateur radio operators would be alerted, confirmed and standing by.  Additionally, we would be reaching out to our partners with Norfolk Public Schools, Foodbank of Southeastern Virginia, Senior Services of Southeastern Virginia, Sentara and more to discuss how we can ensure those children who are reliant on NPS’ breakfast, lunch and dinner, as well as homebound adults reliant on home-delivered meals, can receive the necessary sustenance ahead of the storm or during an extended impact on operations. 

Messaging to the community would include the following:

• Talk with your children about the storm.  Sesame Street has some great resources at…http://www.sesamestreet.org/parents/theshow/episodes/the-hurricane (type hurricane in the search box).
• Get to know your neighbors!!  Identify and lend a hand to those who may be a little more vulnerable, those who might need some assistance. 

The EOC will continue to monitor and keep you posted on any updates.  Please feel free to contact us with any questions or concerns you may have.

Thank you!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

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Hurricane Exercise 5-9-17 @ 1pm

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Team,

Brady has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and expected to strengthen further still.  The forecast track has not changed nor has the timing by which it’s supposed to be off the coast of SC.

 

Note: when looking at a forecast map and seeing the “cone of uncertainty,” it is very important to understand the eye of the storm is expected to remain within that cone 2/3 of the time.  In other words, it is possible the eye of the storm could fall outside that cone 1/3 of the time!

In this scenario with ~5 days (120 hours) before the arrival of tropical storm-force winds in our area, we would be in Readiness Condition 4 which indicates a tropical weather system has developed which has the potential to impact the locality within 144-96 hours (D-6 to D-4 days).  More than simply reviewing plans, Team Norfolk would conduct an initial briefing, would be testing equipment, taking preparatory actions such as ensuring adequate stock of materials and resources, pre-warning emergency services and personnel, etc. 

Along with talking with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management and the National Weather Service in Wakefield, the Planning Cell would be reviewing the National Hurricane Center’s 2-day and 5-day tropical weather outlook which would be available at 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm.  (Note: the 5-Day Outlook shows where a storm might form, not where it’s heading).

If this were a storm with an N/W approach like Isabel in 2003 or our storm of record – the 1933 storm - rather than parallel along the coast, we would be looking at the potential for a larger-scale evacuation.  Fortunately in this scenario evacuation would be likely limited to the coastal areas.  The exact areas would be better determined by the various tools we use called SLOSH (Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) and HURREVAC.  Based on current storm parameters, a SLOSH Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) model at this early stage might look something like this:

 

Note: this sample SLOSH model is errant as it used the current forecast information rather than the advisory for a spot closer to our place on the map which is unavailable at this point of the exercise.

Incidentally, within 48 hours of landfall (once of Watch has been issued) the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center will put together a P-SURGE (Probabilistic Storm Surge) which provides greater detail and depths of expected flooding above ground in the impact areas based on the storms strength, speed and direction.

At this early point, we would still likely hold off on requesting a local declaration of emergency until tomorrow’s forecast. We would, however, be sharing important information throughout the community.  More than explaining actions underway, we would emphasize the following:

·        First and foremost, register for Norfolk Alert!  If you fall in an area to be evacuated, this is the tool we’ll use to send the notification.  If you do not have a landline and haven’t registered your cell number, you will not get the message.  Register now by going to Norfolk.gov/emergency or by calling our Norfolk Cares Call Center at 757-664-6510

·        Be sure to have a plan for whether you would evacuate or stay in place.  Have supplies on hand such as non-perishable food items, manual can-opener, enough water and medicines, etc.

·        Be sure to know how to keep informed.  Norfolk.gov, city’s social media sites, NextDoor, TV48, etc.  And for what is likely to be a larger-scale incident, we’ll partner with Norfolk State University’s 91.1FM WNSB to broadcast Norfolk-specific information.

The EOC will continue to monitor and will keep you posted on any updates.

Thank you!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

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HURRICANE EXERCISE 5-8-17 @ 1130

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Ladies and Gentlemen,

We have received information from Fleet Weather Center on Tropical Storm Brady which is currently located in the Caribbean Sea.  The forecasted track appears similar to that of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 in that it will move Northward through the islands then up the East Coast.  See graphic below (or click here for website).  According to the graph the storm should arrive off the coast of South Carolina Saturday the 13^th at 8am.

While it is way too early to determine how TS Brady will be influenced and directed between now and then, the Norfolk Emergency Operations Center will continue to monitor.  There are no conference calls or briefings scheduled at this time; however, if the storm continues to move in the direction forecasted, a discussion will be scheduled.

Thank you and please feel free to contact the EOC with any questions or concerns you may have!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

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Team Norfolk Update 5-5-17 - TORNADO SIREN??

Ladies and Gentlemen,

During this morning’s hazardous weather, I received a few calls about a tornado siren being heard in parts around Norfolk.  Norfolk was not under a Tornado Warning, and if we were, it is important to know the city does not utilize tornado sirens.  Incidentally, to my knowledge, no other locality in Hampton Roads does either.  There are some partner organizations such as Norfolk Naval Shipyard and institutions of higher learning like ODU and William & Mary do utilize them for their campuses.  And certainly as one works their way up the Peninsula there are sirens to be used in the case of an incident at the Surry Nuclear Power Station.  The reason we in Norfolk do not use tornado sirens has to do with cost and effectiveness.

Several years back an analysis was done to determine the effective range of just one siren, and then how many sirens to cover the locality and the total was exurbanite – certainly more than the expected benefit.  The other concern had to do with confusion.  As previously mentioned, in some parts of the region a siren means an incident at a nuclear facility.  In another part a siren was used to kickoff a golf tournament (not joking).  And in such a transient area, people bring their own understanding of what a siren should mean.  Lastly, sirens alone do no reach individuals with hearing challenges.

First and foremost, folks are strongly encouraged to invest in a battery-operated SAME-compatible All-Hazards NOAA radio.  This is the most immediate way to be notified, day or night, of an impending threat.  Also, information and adaptive equipment is available to individuals who happen to be deaf and hard of hearing.

We also use a system developed by Everbridge which we refer to as Norfolk Alert.  This system allows us to send out alert notifications to geographically-targeted areas (i.e. specific neighborhoods) for urgent life-saving information or the subscriber base in general (for updates on a storm response, etc.).  Very important: if we need to send an immediate alert to your community (due to active threat, hazardous materials spill, etc.), it is sent to the landline telephones and those cell numbers which have subscribed into the system.  If you no longer use a landline phone and you have not registered for Norfolk Alert, you would not receive the alert.  So please register now!!!  It's easy, just visit Norfolk.gov/emergency or call the Norfolk Cares Call Center at (757) 664-6510.

Another type of alert you may receive is the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA).  You have likely received one of these alerts which grabbed your attention with a different ring tone or vibration.  And the message may have been for extreme weather or an AMBER Alert.  These messages, which are designed to reach cell phones within the radius of selected cell towers, can be sent by local and state public safety agencies, FEMA, the FCC, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Weather Service.  Please click here for more details.

It is our mission to provide timely, accurate, actionable and accessible information throughout an incident.  Therefore, it is critical you understand the means by which an alert may be sent and also take the necessary steps to ensure you receive those notifications!  If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us in the Emergency Operations Center!

Sincerely,

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

Team Norfolk Update 5-4-17 - HURRICANE EXERCISE

Team Norfolk,

Next week is National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  As previously mentioned, it is also the Navy’s annual hurricane exercise: HURREX 2017 (info slides attached). As in previous years, we will participate in the exercise play.  Unlike previous years, however, we will send out Alert messages to the Team, conduct conference calls and otherwise post information for the entire community explaining all we would be doing throughout.  In fact, anyone in the community can text the word ‘HURREX2017” to 888777 to receive Team Norfolk updates through Norfolk Alert so please spread the word! 

Note: all exercise messages will labeled as "EXERCISE" and not a real-world incident!

We're looking to find gaps in our plans so they may be addressed prior to June 1, so we're hoping the event and efforts to share information will spark thoughts, ideas, questions and/ concerns throughout our community.  That said, we want people to challenge our plans/actions; devil’s advocates are welcome!!  Otherwise this will not be considered a successful evolution.  Our After Action meeting will take place during our monthly Local Emergency Planning Committee meeting scheduled for Wednesday, May 14 from 1-3pm. 

If you have any questions now or throughout the HURREX, please feel free to shoot us an email or call (757) 441-5600.

Thank you for your time and participation!!

Sincerely,

Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov