Hermine Update 9-2-16 0800

Team,

Here is the latest from the National Weather Service (below and attached):

“Please see the attached briefing summary for TS Hermine, centered over southern Georgia as of 5 am EDT this morning. The storm will pose a wind and surge threat to VA, NC, and MD. Heavy rainfall across NC and southeast VA could result in additional flooding Saturday.

As Hermine continues to lift north/northeast later today through Saturday, the storm may become a hybrid type storm, exhibiting characteristics of both a Tropical Storm and a nor'easter. This could result in the wind field becoming larger and more spread out with gusts on Saturday to around 40 mph even well inland. The storm is forecast to exit off the northeast NC coast Saturday morning and re-intensify somewhat Saturday afternoon and Saturday night offshore. Expect strong winds Saturday, especially near the coast, and as the storm slows down and stalls off the coast Sunday, winds will remain elevated, particularly over the VA/MD eastern shore. Expect moderate to severe coastal flooding for Hampton Roads as well as all zones adjacent to the ocean, similar to what occurred this past October. High waves along the coast will result in significant beach erosion. “

The most current hourly forecast is attached for your review.  There you will see the pickup in activity later this evening.  70% chance of rain beginning at 6pm.  Winds increasing around 7pm, throughout the night and through Saturday.  Graphic for rainfall forecast of 5.59” also attached.

Tide forecast has increased since the last update almost 1’.  To provide context, as the NWS is comparing this storm to that of Joaquin / Nor’easter of last October, the highest tide was 6.5’.  Our current forecast for tomorrow is 6.4'.  If you care to see how this might look in your specific area, visit TITAN at http://gisapp1.norfolk.gov/TITAN/HOME.aspx.  Remember, since the tide charts use MLLW and TITAN uses NAVD88, go with a foot lower in TITAN that what is reflected in the tide chart.  In other words, if a tide forecast is 6.4 MLLW, use 5.5 or 6.0 in TITAN’s flood layer.

Crews have begun their storm preparations yesterday to include the following:

• Vactor Trucks working hot spots city-wide (Wed-Fri)
• Road flooded signs will be flipped down late Friday
• Ohio Creek gate will be closed at low tide around 3pm on Fri
• Brooke Ave and Nauticus Ped Gate will be closed Friday afternoon
• Mason Creek gate will be closed Friday afternoon
• Pulling Gutter Buddies to minimize street flooding

All storm preparations will be complete by the end of the day on today.

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management has scheduled a conference call for 10am; expect an update very soon thereafter.  In the meantime, I am including some pics from that storm last October as reference of what can be expected.

 

Thanks!

 

Jim Redick
Director

Jim