Friday, September 2, 2016

Hermine Update 9-2-16 at 1130

All,

Norfolk is currently under a Tropical Storm Warning until further notice and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect from September 3, 02:00 AM EDT until September 3, 08:00 PM.
The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) participated in VDEM’s conference call.  There is no state declaration of emergency, but it is possible when they brief the Governor later today.  Such a declaration is necessary to allow for the pre-positioning / deployment of state resources.  To this point, the only request we have on the table is a National Guard high water vehicle and crew.

There are no significant changes to the forecast.  National Weather Service also reported potential rainfall to reach upwards of 7” (attached graph indicates over 5.5”).  While we’ve experienced a dry spell, this much rain + anticipated winds could result in downed trees and as a result, downed power lines.  With that amount of rain, tomorrow (Saturday) morning’s 11am high tide of 6.4’ (approaching major flood stage) is still the greatest risk.
We have identified some parking safe havens for our community which will be communicated later in the day.  In the meantime, big thanks to Norfolk Public Schools for their partnership!!

As we move forward, please encourage folks to visit Norfolk.gov and the City’s social media for updates.  The red “emergency” bar will be activated on the City’s webpage to communicate all updates, closures, etc.  This info will also be communicated on TV47.  Likewise, we ask you encourage everyone to register for Norfolk Alert (https://member.everbridge.net/index/453003085612694#/login), the other means by which we can alert our community of this weather event and all future (notice and no-notice) disasters.
At this time, all coordination over the weekend will be accomplished by Emergency Management staff in the Emergency Operations Center.  There are no Team Norfolk conference calls scheduled; however, this is subject to change based on conditions.  Likewise, these information updates will continue.

Thanks!
Jim




Hermine Update 9-2-16 0800

Team,

Here is the latest from the National Weather Service (below and attached):
“Please see the attached briefing summary for TS Hermine, centered over southern Georgia as of 5 am EDT this morning. The storm will pose a wind and surge threat to VA, NC, and MD. Heavy rainfall across NC and southeast VA could result in additional flooding Saturday.

As Hermine continues to lift north/northeast later today through Saturday, the storm may become a hybrid type storm, exhibiting characteristics of both a Tropical Storm and a nor'easter. This could result in the wind field becoming larger and more spread out with gusts on Saturday to around 40 mph even well inland. The storm is forecast to exit off the northeast NC coast Saturday morning and re-intensify somewhat Saturday afternoon and Saturday night offshore. Expect strong winds Saturday, especially near the coast, and as the storm slows down and stalls off the coast Sunday, winds will remain elevated, particularly over the VA/MD eastern shore. Expect moderate to severe coastal flooding for Hampton Roads as well as all zones adjacent to the ocean, similar to what occurred this past October. High waves along the coast will result in significant beach erosion. “
The most current hourly forecast is attached for your review.  There you will see the pickup in activity later this evening.  70% chance of rain beginning at 6pm.  Winds increasing around 7pm, throughout the night and through Saturday.  Graphic for rainfall forecast of 5.59” also attached.

Tide forecast has increased since the last update almost 1’.  To provide context, as the NWS is comparing this storm to that of Joaquin / Nor’easter of last October, the highest tide was 6.5’.  Our current forecast for tomorrow is 6.4'.  If you care to see how this might look in your specific area, visit TITAN at http://gisapp1.norfolk.gov/TITAN/HOME.aspx Remember, since the tide charts use MLLW and TITAN uses NAVD88, go with a foot lower in TITAN that what is reflected in the tide chart.  In other words, if a tide forecast is 6.4 MLLW, use 5.5 or 6.0 in TITAN’s flood layer.

Crews have begun their storm preparations yesterday to include the following:
  • Vactor Trucks working hot spots city-wide (Wed-Fri)
  • Road flooded signs will be flipped down late Friday
  • Ohio Creek gate will be closed at low tide around 3pm on Fri
  • Brooke Ave and Nauticus Ped Gate will be closed Friday afternoon
  • Mason Creek gate will be closed Friday afternoon
  • Pulling Gutter Buddies to minimize street flooding
All storm preparations will be complete by the end of the day on today.

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management has scheduled a conference call for 10am; expect an update very soon thereafter.  In the meantime, I am including some pics from that storm last October as reference of what can be expected.
 
Thanks!
 
Jim Redick
Director




Jim

Monday, June 13, 2016

June 12, 2016 Tragedy in Orlando

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Our thoughts and prayers go to those impacted by the tragic incident in Orlando.  Of all the discourse playing out on the news, one question we must ask is are we ready?  We see all too often acts of violence and terror do happen; no place is immune.  So what steps can we - Team Norfolk - do to prevent such acts?  And respond when they occur?

1.      Keep the issue in context.  Daniel Gardner wrote an excellent book called The Science of Fear: How the Culture of Fear Manipulates Your Brain.  In it he explains there is disproportionate coverage to dramatic, violent, and catastrophic causes of death – while paying far less attention to slow, quiet killers like diabetes.  In other words, one of the most consistent findings of risk-perception research is that we overestimate the likelihood of being killed by the things that make the evening news and underestimate those that don’t.  What makes the evening news?  The rare, vivid, and catastrophic killers.  Murder, terrorism, fire, and flood.  What doesn’t make the news is the routine cause of death that kills one person at a time and doesn’t lend itself to strong emotions and pictures.  Diabetes, asthma, heart disease. (Gardner, p. 57). 
Consider the following:

a.       On average, 36,000 Americans are killed by the flu and other common ailments; obesity, diabetes and heart disease claim ~100,000 annually.
b.      Almost 3,000 people were killed in the September 11 attacks.  At the same time, the population of the United States was around 281 million.  Thus, the chance of any one American dying in the attacks that day was 0.00106 per cent, or 1 in 93,000.  Compare that to the 1 in 48,548 annual risk a pedestrian has of being struck and killed by a car, or the 1 in 87,976 annual risk of drowning… annual risk of dying in a motor-vehicle accident is one in 6,498. (p. 249)

2.      See Something, Say Something.  This should not be a cliché and this is not “spying” on or stereotyping anyone.  You know what normal behavior is in your place of work.  You know what behavior or items may be suspicious.  Factors such as race, ethnicity, and/or religious affiliation are not suspicious; only suspicious behavior and situations (e.g., an unattended backpack or package, or someone breaking into a restricted area) should be reported.

3.      Awareness.  Familiarize yourself with the Run. Hide. Fight. Video developed by Ready Houston.  Additionally, FEMA offers a free online independent study course: Active Shooter: What You Can Do.

4.      Plan.  Team Norfolk has a plan – do you know what it is?  Will you review and challenge it to help make it the most effective it can be?  Please take a moment to review the DRAFT Team Norfolk Active Threat Hazard Annex not only for your familiarity, but also your feedback.  To be reviewed in conjunction with the Concept of Operations document (which will be utilized for all incidents and events – read this first!), these documents should highlight the resources which may come to bear for such an incident and how we can take steps to prepare ourselves, our families, our schools, place of business and/or Houses of Worship.  Note: these plans are open source; no tactical plans are included.

5.      Train.  You could very well find yourself as one of the first one on scene.  Could you provide assistance to those in need?  Did you know Norfolk Fire-Rescue offers FREE training on “Stop the Bleed” as well as Hands-Only CPR?  Norfolk Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) is also available and free!  See attached and schedule for your workplace, civic league, school or House of Worship!

6.      Exercise / Drill.  Exercise your knowledge!  I will close by introducing you to Mr. Rick Rescorla, former head of security for one of Morgan Stanley’s locations as told by Amanda Ripley, author of The Unthinkable: Those Who Survive Disasters and Why

After the 1993 bombing and the fiasco of an evacuation that followed, Rescorla decided that Morgan Stanley employees had to take full responsibility for their own survival— something that happened almost nowhere else in the Trade Center. He knew it was foolish to rely on first responders to save his employees. His company was the largest tenant in the World Trade Center, a village nestled in the clouds. Morgan Stanley’s employees would need to take care of one another.

From then on, Rescorla started running the entire company through frequent, surprise fire drills. He trained employees to meet in the hallway between the stairwells and, at his direction, go down the stairs, two by two, to the forty-fourth floor. He noticed they moved slowly, so he started timing them with a stopwatch—and they got faster.

The radicalism of Rescorla’s drills cannot be overstated. Remember, Morgan Stanley was an investment bank. Millionaire, high-performance bankers on the 73rd floor chafed at Rescorla’s evacuation regimen. They did not appreciate interrupting high-net-worth clients in the middle of a meeting. Each drill, which pulled the firm’s brokers off their phones and away from their computers, cost the company money. But Rescorla did it anyway. He didn’t care whether he was popular.

When guests visited Morgan Stanley for training, Rescorla made sure they all knew how to get out too. Even though the chances were slim, Rescorla wanted them ready for an evacuation.

On the morning of 9/11, Rescorla heard an explosion and saw Tower 1 burning from his office window. A Port Authority official came over the public address system and urged everyone to remain at their desks. But Rescorla grabbed his bullhorn, his walkie-talkie, and his cell phone and began systematically ordering Morgan Stanley employees to get out. They already knew what to do, even the 250 visitors who were taking a stockbroker training class and had already been shown the nearest stairway.

Rescorla had led soldiers through the Vietcong-controlled Central Highlands of Vietnam. He knew the brain responded poorly to extreme fear. Back then, he had calmed his men by singing Cornish songs from his youth. Now, in the crowded stairwell, as his sweat leached through his suit jacket, Rescorla began to sing into the bullhorn. “Men of Cornwall stand ye steady; It cannot be ever said ye for the battle were not ready; Stand and never yield!”

Moments later, Rescorla had successfully evacuated the vast majority of Morgan Stanley employees out of the burning tower. Then he turned around. He was last seen on the 10th floor, heading upward, shortly before the tower collapsed. His remains have never been found.

Rescorla taught Morgan Stanley employees to save themselves. It’s a lesson that had become, somehow, rare and precious. When the tower collapsed, only 13 Morgan Stanley colleagues—including Rescorla and four of his security officers—were inside. The other 2,687 were safe.

Let us learn from Rick Rescorla.

Jim

Jim Redick
Director