Hurricane Exercise 5-9-17 @ 1pm

THIS IS AN EXERCISE…EXERCISE…EXERCISE…

Team,

Brady has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and expected to strengthen further still.  The forecast track has not changed nor has the timing by which it’s supposed to be off the coast of SC.

 

Note: when looking at a forecast map and seeing the “cone of uncertainty,” it is very important to understand the eye of the storm is expected to remain within that cone 2/3 of the time.  In other words, it is possible the eye of the storm could fall outside that cone 1/3 of the time!

In this scenario with ~5 days (120 hours) before the arrival of tropical storm-force winds in our area, we would be in Readiness Condition 4 which indicates a tropical weather system has developed which has the potential to impact the locality within 144-96 hours (D-6 to D-4 days).  More than simply reviewing plans, Team Norfolk would conduct an initial briefing, would be testing equipment, taking preparatory actions such as ensuring adequate stock of materials and resources, pre-warning emergency services and personnel, etc. 

Along with talking with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management and the National Weather Service in Wakefield, the Planning Cell would be reviewing the National Hurricane Center’s 2-day and 5-day tropical weather outlook which would be available at 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm.  (Note: the 5-Day Outlook shows where a storm might form, not where it’s heading).

If this were a storm with an N/W approach like Isabel in 2003 or our storm of record – the 1933 storm - rather than parallel along the coast, we would be looking at the potential for a larger-scale evacuation.  Fortunately in this scenario evacuation would be likely limited to the coastal areas.  The exact areas would be better determined by the various tools we use called SLOSH (Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) and HURREVAC.  Based on current storm parameters, a SLOSH Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) model at this early stage might look something like this:

 

Note: this sample SLOSH model is errant as it used the current forecast information rather than the advisory for a spot closer to our place on the map which is unavailable at this point of the exercise.

Incidentally, within 48 hours of landfall (once of Watch has been issued) the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center will put together a P-SURGE (Probabilistic Storm Surge) which provides greater detail and depths of expected flooding above ground in the impact areas based on the storms strength, speed and direction.

At this early point, we would still likely hold off on requesting a local declaration of emergency until tomorrow’s forecast. We would, however, be sharing important information throughout the community.  More than explaining actions underway, we would emphasize the following:

·        First and foremost, register for Norfolk Alert!  If you fall in an area to be evacuated, this is the tool we’ll use to send the notification.  If you do not have a landline and haven’t registered your cell number, you will not get the message.  Register now by going to Norfolk.gov/emergency or by calling our Norfolk Cares Call Center at 757-664-6510

·        Be sure to have a plan for whether you would evacuate or stay in place.  Have supplies on hand such as non-perishable food items, manual can-opener, enough water and medicines, etc.

·        Be sure to know how to keep informed.  Norfolk.gov, city’s social media sites, NextDoor, TV48, etc.  And for what is likely to be a larger-scale incident, we’ll partner with Norfolk State University’s 91.1FM WNSB to broadcast Norfolk-specific information.

The EOC will continue to monitor and will keep you posted on any updates.

Thank you!

Jim
Director, Norfolk EOC
james.redick@norfolk.gov

THIS IS AN EXERCISE…EXERCISE…EXERCISE…