Provided below is a message received from Bill Sammler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wakefield:
"We have created an overview Briefing web page for TS Mathew. Here is the link: http://www.weather.gov/akq/Matthew. I am sure, given the amount of media coverage Matthew is already getting, you have some questions running through your head. Let me try to address a few I suspect you have in this e-mail.
1). Could Matthew directly affect the Mid-Atlantic region? Yes, but not until at least midweek next week.
2). How much confidence is there in the track of Matthew beyond the NHC 5 day forecast? Very little. There is a lot of uncertainty after Saturday regarding the track and intensity of Matthew, with 2 of the most reliable forecast models being more than 2000 miles apart with their position at the same time from last night's forecast run. In addition, from the 11 am NHC discussion: "After that time (72 hours), the tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are significant differences among the track models as to when the turn takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF."
3). From a planning perspective, keep a close eye on the NHC forecast over the next few days, and be especially attuned to changes in that forecast. A great way to do that in HURREVAC is to overlay the last 3 or 6 forecasts. This will allow you to visualize the trends, if any, in the NHC official forecast.
4). Do not focus on any single model solution, or rumors regarding said model(s). We highly recommend focusing on the NHC forecast/trends, which will simplify your planning mindset regarding Matthew."
Bill provided additional information pertaining to rainfall; however, the focus was outside of Norfolk and the immediate area. Nonetheless, the other half of his message is provided below followed by our hourly graphic which shows rain likely beginning around midnight and lasting throughout the day and evening. Rainfall accumulation should be minimal, half an inch over that time period.
Thanks!!
Jim Redick
Director, Norfolk EOC
NEAR TERM Weather - A slight risk of severe thunderstorms/isolated tornadoes exists through this afternoon/evening for much of our area west of the Chesapeake Bay. No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are currently in effect. However, the potential exists through this evening. In addition, another multi-day heavy rain event is in store through Friday. At this time, the focus for the heavy rainfall west and north of the area that received the flooding rains last week. In general this is along and west of the I-95 corridor and north of I-64, where 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected. However, as with last week's rain, higher amounts will be possible. Some significant rainfall is also possible, and has already occurred, over portions of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore, mainly along and west of Rt. 13. Lighter amounts, generally an inch or less, are anticipated across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, where flooding rains occurred last week.
Our Severe Thunderstorm page will help you keep track of the severe weather potential, while our Rain and Snow Forecasts page will provide you with updated rainfall forecasts. In addition, for those of you in the EM/first responder community who have not subscribed to iNWS for watch/warning information, now would be a good time to do so.
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